Türkiye cleaned up its power generation act during the first half of 2024, lifting clean electricity generation by more than 25% compared to the same period last year and cutting fossil fuel-fired output by 9%, according to a Reuters columnist projections earlier this week.
Clean power also registered its highest-ever share of Türkiye’s generation mix from January to June, supplying 53% of all electricity compared to 44% for the same months in 2023, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
Türkiye’s overall electricity output also climbed by nearly 7% from a year ago to its highest in at least six years, ensuring that total electricity supplies for households and businesses have expanded despite cuts to fossil fuel use.
That expansion in total generation contrasts with generation trends across Europe as a whole, where total electricity output remains below prior peaks in several countries due to subdued demand from industry and greater regional energy efficiency, according to Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.
Higher overall Turkish electricity generation should start to put pressure on Turkish electricity prices, which remain sharply above long-term average levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 roiled regional power markets.
To boost output, power firms have relied on coal to provide a majority of the country’s electricity but through the first half of the year, Türkiye’s power firms have been able to cut coal’s share of the national generation mix to make way for more clean power output.
Hydro help
Hydro dams have been the main source of Türkiye’s clean power this year, with output rising by 37% from the same period in 2023 to the highest since 2020.
Increased hydro dam capacity along with heavy rains this spring have fuelled the growth in hydro generation this year.
Output from wind and solar farms has also registered double-digit growth during the first half of 2024.
Wind generation was a record 17.58 TWh from January through June, while solar output was at an all-time high at 11.75 TWh, Ember data shows.
Coal-fired generation has remained largely flat so far in 2024, at 53.6 TWh.
However, gas-fired output has contracted by 26% to the lowest in four years.
In turn, that decline in total fossil fuel-fired generation has reduced Türkiye’s power sector emissions, which fell by 5% to 68.3 million metric tons during the first half compared to the same months last year.
Import impact
Lower overall electricity generation from fossil fuels has meant that Türkiye’s import needs for power generation fuels also dropped during the first half of the year.
Thermal coal purchases contracted by 5% over the first half of 2024 from the first half of 2023 to 9.5 million metric tons, according to ship tracking data from Kepler.
The imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) meanwhile are also said to have dropped by 28% during the first half of the year to 13.6 million tons, and the lowest for the first half of the year since 2019.
However, Maguire considers that the purchases and use of fossil fuels might likely turn higher over the coming months due to the seasonal tendency for hydropower generation to decline sharply from July onwards due to lower rainfall.
In 2023, July and August marked the highest months for coal-fired generation in Türkiye that year, just as hydro generation started to fall sharply from its highs during the spring months.
In 2024, coal generation trends could well follow the same path and climb during the peak summer months.
However, the total coal generation growth may be limited by higher output from solar farms during the sunniest months of the year.
And if wind farms can repeat the strong performance seen during the last two summers – when output peaked from July through September – Türkiye’s power firms may be able to keep overall fossil generation in check and keep clean energy as the primary source of the country’s electricity.
