The much-anticipated meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian leader Bashar Assad is expected to take place in Moscow, sources said.
Since both countries’ leaders have implied intentions to support normalization and hold a series of talks in the past months, discussions have been ongoing over where to hold the critical meeting on the level of presidents.
Erdoğan recently said that he plans to offer to hold the talks in Türkiye, inviting Assad, or a third country. On the other side, Iraq recently voiced its own intention to host the talks in the capital Baghdad.
“The first meeting between Erdoğan and Assad is planned to be held in the Russian capital Moscow,” a source familiar with the issue told Daily Sabah. “Putin will mediate the talks while Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani might be invited. Iran is likely to not be invited to the meeting,” the source said, adding that the meeting might happen as of August.
The Turkish foreign ministry did not comment on the issue, referring it to the presidential office.
Erdoğan severed diplomatic relations with Damascus, describing Assad as a “murderer.” The Syrian leader has long ruled out an improvement in relations while Turkish troops remain on Syrian soil. A previous attempt to normalize relations last year failed due to Syria’s precondition of a withdrawal of all Turkish elements from the country as Ankara insisted that the PKK presence must be wiped out first.
However, a series of events, including Assad returning to the international stage after a decade of isolation, being readmitted to the Arab League, the U.S. elections on the horizon as well as growing domestic unrest in Türkiye against Syrian refugees, have changed the perception of the leaders and opened the path for dialogue.
“The issue of withdrawal of Turkish forces is no precondition but has been agreed to be discussed later to be achieved eventually,” the source said.
The source further added that trade would top the agenda during the first meeting, indicating that trade had already started through Abu Zindan.
From collaboration to competition
The meeting taking place in Moscow would bolster the role of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has made significant investments in Syria and maintained a steady presence since its intervention into the civil war in 2015. The meeting planned between Erdoğan, Assad, Putin and Sudani, is an indicator ofthe ongoing disagreements and competition between Moscow and Tehran on Syria and the country’s post-war future.
Both Iran and Russia have historical ties with Syria, which gained pace with the outbreak of the Syrian civil war and security pacts as well as multifaceted cooperation resulting from it. Tehran seized the opportunity to support Assad’s regime and strengthen its “Shiite Crescent” since the very beginning of the civil war through Iranian forces, proxies as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Meanwhile, for Russia’s direct intervention Syria had to wait until 2015. Moscow aimed to display itself as a global power and restore the influence it had in the Middle East during the Soviet era through Syria. Russia has gained a considerable military presence in Syria with bases such as the air base of Khmeimin and the northeastern port of Tartus, which serve as key points for asserting sway over North Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East regions.
Russian air power and Iranian ground power through its proxies and forces proved vital in maintaining Assad’s rule while weakening the Syrian opposition. Moscow and Tehran, through Syria, developed their capabilities for cooperation and coordinated most of their efforts. Within this scope, Russia, Iran and Türkiye also launched the Astana format talks with the aim of achieving a political solution.
Though Iranian forces on the ground proved vital for supporting Assad and took off most of the burden for Russia, reducing the possibility of deaths of Russian soldiers, Moscow has always been heedful against an unrestrained and growing pro-Iran militia force in the country and its post-war future. Moreover, disagreements over command, military operations, use of Iranian bases, Tehran’s uncompromising stance in talks including the Astana format and its approach toward Israel have been underlying causes of tension. Moscow does not want to see Syria getting entangled in the conflict between Iran and Israel. Tel Aviv already struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus as well as several Syrian infrastructures and Hezbollah targets.
The main strategy of the two has also been different since the beginning. Iran’s intention was mainly to limit the U.S. and Israeli presence in the region while inserting its own proxy circles. Russia, on the other side, aimed to strengthen the Syrian army and institutions itself through training and thereby winning an ally and useful ground for influence in the Middle East.
Competition for contracts on energy, economic resources and Syria’s reconstruction have also somewhat caused friction. For all that, this subtle rivalry between the two most influential actors in Syria has provided Assad a field of maneuvers between Moscow and Tehran through which it could assert a degree of autonomy. Normalization with the Arab world will further boost this partly autonomous stance.
Still, despite the disagreements and competition, a breakdown of the Russian-Iranian cooperation in Syria is far-fetched. Russia’s strategy will be to limit a permanent Iranian presence in Syria but coordination would continue.
The Iraqi equation
Iraq is another actor and neighbor that has maintained close contact with the Assad regime since 2011. Al Sudani views the rapprochement between Erdoğan and Assad as another occasion to adopt a role as a regional mediator, having facilitated similar talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the past. Moreover, it would also be a prize for domestic politics to bolster his leadership before elections in Iraq.
Russia’s move to consider inviting Iraq instead of Iran is hitting two birds with one stone. First, it could be read as an attempt to drive a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran. Secondly, it would make up for stealing the scene of Al Sudani, who himself aimed to host the first personal talks between Erdoğan and Assad, and showing the strength of ties between Moscow and Baghdad.
