In the wake of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Russian military has focused its efforts on key territorial areas in Ukraine, notably the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). After seizing control of this facility in February 2022, Russia strategically disrupted Ukraine’s energy supply and acquired a significant nuclear deterrent capability. However, recent reports of black smoke emerging from the Zaporizhzhia NPP have sparked global concern, given the potentially catastrophic consequences of a nuclear incident and its far-reaching impacts.
The looming specter of energy terrorism in the region continues to escalate, serving as a potent yet dangerous tool for the involved parties. There is no clear information about the Zaporizhzhia NPP fire. Ukraine and Russia have mutually blamed each other for the issue. However, the most important thing is that despite the fire, radiation indicators at the power plant remained normal. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has announced that nuclear safety has not been affected by the fire at the plant and that there is no radioactive material near the cooling towers. However, is this statement sufficient and does it fully address the concerns?
Moreover, what consequences will this nuclear threat have? Why are the parties acting so recklessly? The answers to this question must be given within the existing conjuncture.
Risks and consequences
The Zaporizhzhia NPP is in the steppe zone of Ukraine, on the bank of the Kakhovka water reservoir near Enerhodar. Its construction began during the Cold War. In 1984, the first four power units were launched. Two more units were added later, with their construction concluding in 1995, marking the plant’s full operational status. The capacity of Zaporizhzhia NPP is enormous. It is the largest of the four nuclear power plants in Ukraine, the largest in Europe and the ninth in the world, with a total capacity of 6,000 MW.
Although this power plant has been closed since September 2022, the nuclear threat is not over. In terms of the technical aspect of the work, nuclear particles are still in the plant. The potential impact of a nuclear disaster could be more significant and widespread than the effects of the Chernobyl or Fukushima NPPs. Specifically, the Zaporizhzhia NPP can potentially cause 10 times the damage of the Chernobyl NPP.
The implications of such a disaster are not limited to the NPP’s immediate vicinity. It is a grave concern for countries such as Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova, which are identified as the most risky areas in the first perimeter. During the latest fire, authorities in Lithuania, which is over 900 kilometers (660 miles) from the Zaporizhzhia NPP, reported that there had been no changes in the recorded radiation levels, fortunately. However, their statement is a stark reminder of the potential widespread effects of a nuclear disaster.
We are facing the prospect of a global catastrophe with devastating impacts in many areas. Over thousands of kilometers, decades of lasting effects on human health and the environment would certainly be among the most devastating ones. However, agriculture and food security will also be severely damaged, triggering a global crisis in the short to medium term. At this point, it makes no sense for Ukrainian and Russian officials to blame each other for the cause of the fire because, in the end, the disaster will hit everyone. Therefore, not only the Zaporizhia NPP but all nuclear power plants, especially in the war zone, should be converted into safe zones.
A stable mediator: Türkiye
The instrumentalization of nuclear threats within the ongoing war demands immediate attention. The consequences of nuclear terrorism would be not only unpredictable but also disastrous. Even if direct negotiations between the parties are not currently feasible, engaging mediators to address the issue is crucial and underscores the need for global cooperation.
Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, Türkiye has emerged as the leading nation in efforts to resolve the conflict and promote peace and stability in the region. Similar to the grain corridor initiative, Türkiye needs to start a dialogue between the parties regarding nuclear terror attempts, using the example of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. For this mediation to be effective, not only Russia and Ukraine but also the West’s participation is crucial since the West has long supported Ukraine against Russia and has a significant stake in the outcome of the war. The possibilities of global annihilation or World War III are scenarios that no rational actor would consider acceptable.
